Citation

Ahmed LA, Schirmer H, Fønnebø V, Joakimsen RM, Berntsen GK. Eur. J. Epidemiol. 2006; 21(11): 815-822.

Affiliation

Institute of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, 9037, Tromsø, Norway. Luai.Awad@ism.uit.no

Copyright

(Copyright © 2006, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1007/s10654-006-9072-3

PMID

17119878

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: We examined a two-step case-finding strategy where the Cummings' risk score (NEJM 1995) was applied in a population-based setting together with bone mineral density (BMD) measurements in order to validate its ability to identify women with high risk of hip fracture. METHODS: All Tromsø women aged between 65 and 74 were invited to the Tromsø Osteoporosis Study (TROST) together with a 5% random sample of women aged 75-84 years (n = 1410). All had forearm BMD measurements in 1994/95 and were followed for 5 years with respect to first hip fracture. A risk score was constructed matching the Cummings score as closely as possible. RESULTS: In all 759, 578 and 73 women had 0-2, 3-4 and 5+ risk factors, respectively. Women with 5+ risk factors had a 5-year hip fracture risk of 11% (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.7-18.2%). BMD screening applied to these women identified 74% of them as osteoporotic and 19% as osteopenic with, respectively, 5-year hip fracture risk of 13% and 7.1%. CONCLUSION: In a population different from the one the score was generated in, this simple risk score identifies a group of women with high risk of hip fractures. With no additional BMD measurements, those high-risk women could benefit from early intervention measures.

Language: en