Citation

Buhaug H. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2010; 107(38): 16477-16482.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2010, National Academy of Sciences)

DOI

10.1073/pnas.1005739107

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Vocal actors within policy and practice contend that environmental variability and shocks, such as drought and prolonged heat waves, drive civil wars in Africa. Recently, a widely publicized scientific article appears to substantiate this claim. This paper investigates the empirical foundation for the claimed relationship in detail. Using a host of different model specifications and alternative measures of drought, heat, and civil war, the paper concludes that climate variability is a poor predictor of armed conflict. Instead, African civil wars can be explained by generic structural and contextual conditions: prevalent ethno-political exclusion, poor national economy, and the collapse of the Cold War system.

Language: en