Citation

Menard S, Huizinga D. Soc. Sci. Res. 1989; 18(2): 174-194.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1989, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/0049-089X(89)90018-5

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Age, period, and cohort size effects are calculated for alcohol, marijuana, and polydrug use for seven cohorts of youth, aged 11-17 in 1976 and 18-24 in 1983. Data are taken from the National Youth Survey, a longitudinal prospective probability sample. Use of cohort size, rather than year of birth, is based on existing theory (the Easterlin hypothesis) and allows parameter estimation by ordinary least-squares regression. The results confirm the existence of a nonlinear age effect with a peak at about age 20, a finding consistent with the hypothesis of maturational reform. The Easterlin cohort size hypothesis also receives support, with larger birth cohorts having higher rates of substance use for most of the dependent variables. Period effects are also present and appear to be nonlinear with a peak at 1980 for marijuana use; they are monotonically positive for alcohol and polydrug use. In several respects, these results for alcohol and illicit substance use differ from those for other types of illegal behavior with respect to age, period, and cohort size effects.