Citation

Smith HL, Cutright P. Soc. Sci. Res. 1985; 14(3): 226-250.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1985, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/0049-089X(85)90003-1

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

We review the literature dealing with the various components of change in the number of female family heads and conclude that P. Cutright's (1974, Journal of Marriage and the Family 36, 714-721) four components of change in the number of ever-married female family heads can be usefully applied to a reanalysis of decade-by-decade changes in this quantity among white and nonwhite women ages 15-44, from 1940 through 1980. However, we substantially revise and update Cutright's (1974) original data. Our findings include the fact that while the relative importance of the various components of increases in ever-married female family headship vary from decade to decade, overall trends are fairly similar for white and nonwhite women. Moreover, the rapid rise between 1970 and 1980 in the number of white and nonwhite female family heads among the never-married (single) continued through the 1980 to 1983 period. A decade ago, Cutright (1974) predicted that a change in the number of female family heads from 1970 on would reflect little more than changes in the numbers of ever- and never-married women ages 15-44. We discuss this inaccurate prediction and conclude that wishful thinking is a poor guide in forecasting the future.