Citation

Lovegrove GR, Sayed T. Can. J. Civil Eng. 2006; 33(5): 609-621.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2006, National Research Council of Canada)

DOI

10.1139/l06-013

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This study describes the development of macro-level (i.e., neighbourhood or traffic zone level) collision prediction models using data from 577 neighbourhoods across the Greater Vancouver Regional District. The objective is to provide a safety planning decision-support tool that facilitates a proactive approach to community planning which addresses road safety before problems emerge. The models are developed using the generalized linear regression modelling (GLM) technique assuming a negative binomial error structure. The resulting models relate traffic collisions to neighbourhood characteristics such as traffic volume, demographics, network shape, and transportation demand management. Several models are presented for total or severe collisions in rural or urban zones using measured and (or) modelled data. It is hoped that quantifying a predictive traffic safety - neighbourhood planning relationship will facilitate improved decisions by community planners and engineers and, ultimately, facilitate improved neighbourhood traffic safety for residents and other road users.

Key words: neighbourhood safety, macro-level collision prediction models, road safety, safety planning, transportation demand management, sociodemographic, generalized linear regression modelling.