Citation

Pearman AD. Transp. Plann. Tech. 1988; 12(1): 73-85.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1988, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/03081068808717361

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario?based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario?based approach to strategy choice.