Citation

Levine S, Joksimovich V, Stetson F. Reliab. Eng. 1983; 6(4): 197-209.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1983, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/0143-8174(83)90004-5

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The paper offers an overview of the current state of affairs in the field of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the US as applied to nuclear power. The history of the development of PRA techniques starts essentially with the Reactor Safety Study (RSS) which was sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and published in 1975 as report WASH-1400. It was subjected both to extensive technical peer review and, as requested by the US Congress, to oversight review by a scientific panel called the Lewis Committee. Applications of PRA techniques did not spread widely outside the field of advanced reactors such as an HTGR until the Three Mile Island (TMI) accident in March 1979. In the four year since the TMI accident a rapid expansion of the use of PRA has occurred. One of the major strengths of PRA is its broad applicability to problems faced by utilities, designers and regulators. While offering substantial benefits, PRA has also some limitations which need to be understood. The expansion has primarily taken the form of plant-specific studies. Several major studies are now published and many more are in progress. The paper discusses some insights gained from the Big Rock Point and Zion/Indian Point studies, and concludes with a subject closely related to PRA, which is the development of safety goals for nuclear regulation.