Citation

Durr AC. Reliab. Eng. 1982; 3(6): 475-485.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1982, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/0143-8174(82)90037-3

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The requirement of a design to life cycle cost model for an accurate reliability prediction method that can be applied very early in a project's life is discussed. Current methods either lack accuracy or cannot be applied until extensive details of the equipment are available. Based empirically on the data, a model has been developed that uses a Weibull distribution of time between failures combined with time-variable failure rates. It assesses the equipment's function and technology and, in association with a modified parts count prediction, produces predictions that are both accurate and timely. The analysis has shown that the accuracy has improved from 30% of predictions within one standard deviation of the achieved reliability based on a straight parts count prediction, to 70% based on the Weibull time-between-failures model.