Citation

Lapham SC, Todd M. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2012; 45: 142-151.

Affiliation

Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, 612 Encino Place NE, Albuquerque, NM 87102, United States.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2012, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.aap.2011.12.005

PMID

22269495

PMCID

PMC3323116

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the utility of deterrence and social-control theories for prospective prediction of driving-while-impaired (DWI) outcomes of first-time DWI offenders. METHOD: The sample consisted of a subset of 544 convicted first-time DWI offenders (N=337 females) who were interviewed 5 and 15 years after referral to a Screening Program in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. Variables collected at the 5-year (initial) interview were used in structural equation models to predict past 3-months, self-reported DWI at the 15-year follow-up (follow-up) interview. These variables represented domains defined by deterrence and social-control theories of DWI behavior, with one model corresponding to deterrence theory and one to social-control theory. RESULTS: Both models fit the data. DWI jail time was positively related to perceived enforcement, which was negatively but not significantly related to self-reported DWI. Neither jail time for DWI nor perceived likelihood of arrest was linearly related to self-reported DWI at follow-up. Interactions between jail time and prior DWI behavior indicated relatively weaker associations between initial and 15-year DWI for those reporting more jail time. CONCLUSION: Our prospective study demonstrated that for this convicted DWI offender cohort, classic formulations of deterrence and social-control theories did not account for DWI. However, results suggest that punishment may decrease the likelihood of DWI recidivism.

Language: en