Citation

Poznańska A, Wojtyniak B, Seroka W. Przegl. Epidemiol. 2011; 65(3): 483-489.

Vernacular Title

Najwazniejsze przyczyny zgonow Polakow w 2030 roku.

Affiliation

Zakład - Centrum Monitorowania i Analiz Stanu Zdrowia Ludności, Narodowego Instytutu Zdrowia Publicznego - Państwowego Zakładu Higieny w Warszawie. paula@medstat.waw.pl

Copyright

(Copyright © 2011, Panstwowy Zaklad Wydawnictw Lekarskich)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

22184953

Abstract

The purpose of the study was the identification of main causes of death in Poland in 2030 and the assessment of mortality associated with them. It was assumed that the population age structure in 2030 shall develop in accordance with the prognosis of the Central Statistical Office. Mortality level was estimated using the projections for the regions (groups of countries), defined on the basis of some geographical and economic criteria, published by WHO as the result of the Global Burden of Disease Study. It was found that in 2030 mortality in Poland will increase by 17%-25% in comparison to 2008 which will be the result of changes in the age structure of the population. At the same time, the risk of death, expressed by age specific mortality rates, will decrease. Similar effects are expected for particular main causes of death. Ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular diseases will continue to account for the most frequent reasons of death. In comparison to 2008 a significant increase of mortality due to diabetes mellitus and prostate cancer will be observed. According to some projections, it will also refer to the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as well as malignant neoplasms of colon, rectum and stomach. Mortality due to suicides and road traffic accidents will decrease.

Language: pl