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Citation |
Ciccone A. Am. Econ. J. Appl. Econ. 2011; 3(4): 215-227. |
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Copyright |
(Copyright © 2011, American Economic Association) |
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DOI |
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PMID |
unavailable |
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Abstract |
Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t -- 1 and t -- 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t -- 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t -- 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47) |