Citation

Sammis CG, Sornette D. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2002; 99(Suppl 1): 2501-2508.

Affiliation

Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0740, USA. sammis@usc.edu

Copyright

(Copyright © 2002, National Academy of Sciences)

DOI

10.1073/pnas.012580999

PMID

11875202

PMCID

PMC128568

Abstract

We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities." The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive feedback of the seismic activity on its release rate. The most important mechanisms for such positive feedback are presented. We solve analytically a simple model of geometrical positive feedback in which the stress shadow cast by the last large earthquake is progressively fragmented by the increasing tectonic stress.

Language: en