Citation

Reinfurt DW, Stewart JR, Weaver NL. Accid. Anal. Prev. 1991; 23(5): 453-462.

Affiliation

University of North Carolina, Highway Safety Research Center, Chapel Hill 27599.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1991, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

1741901

Abstract

The effect of the economy as reflected by employment and unemployment rates on motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, and homicides is examined using several national databases. First, regression models are fit to these fatality data-overall as well as for a variety of age-race-gender subgroups. Then time series models-autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and structural time series analysis-were fit to the data, both with and without the economic indicators, to examine the relative ability of the models to forecast subsequent fatalities. No evidence was found using any of the modeling techniques that knowledge of yearly values of rates of employment, unemployment, and nonlabor force leads to improved forecasts of the level of motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, or homicides in the total U.S. population or within various subpopulations of interest.