Citation

Lee YT, Turcotte DL, Holliday JR, Sachs MK, Rundle JB, Chen CC, Tiampo KF. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2011; 108(40): 16533-16538.

Affiliation

Geology Department, University of California, Davis, CA 95616.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2011, National Academy of Sciences)

DOI

10.1073/pnas.1113481108

PMID

21949355

PMCID

PMC3189015

Abstract

The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M≥4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M≥4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.

Language: en