Citation

Zini G. Proc. Road Saf. Four Continents Conf. 2010; 15: 29-40.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2010, Conference Sponsor)

DOI

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PMID

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Abstract

As frequently argued, traffic victims will be higher and higher, at least in the short and medium terms, specially in developing countries. A recent report by the International Monetary Fund stated that the world economy is expected to continue to grow robustly by 4,9% in both 2007and 2008, and that emerging markets and developing countries will continue to grow strongly[IMF, 2007]. Moreover, the close relationship between economic prosperity and increasing motorization and mobility, and between the latter and higher rates of traffic victims have also been proved [WHO, 2004]. Thus (since developing countries will certainly have to deal with a harsh burden of many traffic victims over the next years) the importance of answering "which first world answers may fit third world problems?". Yet, two other fundamental issues must be deemed: "which are the priorities for those answers for each nation?", and "have the first measures been successfully managed so as to step on to the next actions within the strategic plan?". In this regards, a paper presented at the 13th RS4C Conference discussed the reasons that lead to the past and present absence of reliable and periodic road crash data in Argentina, without which none of the above questions could be answered properly [ZINI, 2005]. In this paper a complementary method to assess which first world answers can fit Argentina's problems is proposed. A comprehensive, accurate and periodically updated road crash data base is essential to determine the priorities and the results of each measure, and therefore to design any efficacious strategic plan. However, as it is argued in quality management methods, priorities to prevent non-desired outcomes can be established from the analysis of the risks associated to any process. There are many advantages of this approach, namely that analyzing root causes rather than symptoms should generate better findings, or that many functionaries may feel more comfortable when managing risk indexes rather than hard facts that could lessen their administration performance, among many others. Finally, as traffic and its victims are an extremely complex issue, a systemic approach will be adopted. This approach (opposite to one from a reductionism point of view) will prove to be suitable for a phenomenon that involves many human activities as well as complex interactions with a variable and sometimes unpredictable environment. To conclude, as explained in the last RS4C Conference, where, how and where are people killed or injured in traffic in Argentina cannot be determined with an appropriate precision. Therefore, an introduction to the way to estimate where, how and when there are higher probabilities for traffic victims to appear will be exposed.