Citation

Welki A, Zlatoper TJ. J. Transp. Res. Forum 2004; 43(2): 129-137.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2004, Transportation Research Forum)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This paper examines the issue of large truck safety by conducting a time-series analysis of U.S. fatalities resulting from large truck crashes. The study estimates a regression model of a death ratio (occupants of other vehicles fatalities to truck occupant fatalities) using annual time-series data for the 1975-1999 period. The regression includes two ratio explanatory factors--car size to truck size, and nontruck vehicle miles to truck vehicle miles--and one non-ratio explanatory variable, the proportion of young drivers. Findings show that the vehicle size ratio has a statistically significant negative relationship with the death ratio (i.e., an increase in the size ratio contributes to a shift from other vehicle occupant deaths to trucker deaths); and the vehicle miles ratio has a significant positive association with the fatality ratio (i.e., an increase in the vehicle miles ratio promotes a shift from trucker fatalities to other vehicle occupant fatalities). The proportion of young drivers has a significant negative relationship with the fatality ratio. These results suggest that over time, the changing size disparity between trucks and cars, and the bigger difference between nontruck and truck travel volumes have shifted fatality risk in large truck accidents from truckers to nontruckers.