Citation

Johnson N, Carran S, Botner J, Fontaine K, Laxague N, Nuetzel P, Turnley J, Tivnan B. Science 2011; 333(6038): 81-84.

Affiliation

Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2011, American Association for the Advancement of Science)

DOI

10.1126/science.1205068

PMID

21719677

Abstract

In military planning, it is important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. We uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks. The time difference between fatal attacks by insurgent groups within individual provinces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and by terrorist groups operating worldwide, gives a potent indicator of the later pace of lethal activity.

Language: en