Citation

Mohan D. IATSS Res. 1992; 16(2): 172-174.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1992, International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences, Publisher Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

I call complex societal issues, the question of desirable levels of mobility also cannot have an easy or one "objective" answer. When we deal with this issue, we obviously put in place power ideologies and desire divisions of the future -- stated or unstated. How we view the future also depends upon how much faith we have in the problem-solving capacities of human beings. In the analysis which follows I have attempted some crystal gazing for the next 25 years. Some of the background assumptions are stated below: the large gap in per capita incomes between most of the highly industrialized countries and less industrialized countries will not be bridged; the control over petroleum resources will remain largely in the hands of the high income countries; the total energy required for moving a kilogram mass at high velocities (say over 50 kph) and for constructing and maintaining infrastructure to facilitate such movement will not reduce by an order of magnitude; and transportation costs (absolute) per passenger-kilometer or ton-kilometer for each mode of transport are not likely to reduce much. The last three decades have been very good in reducing the probability of death and injury per passenger kilometer. Most of the work done has been aimed at removing "booby-traps" from highways, making roadside furniture more forgivable in crashes, reducing the probability of drivers making mistakes, and making crashes more survivable. Less work has been done to make non-motorists safer. It is possible that much of what has been achieved for motor vehicle users may already be close to the limits of human capabilities and tolerances. This is assuming that vehicles and roads cannot be made much more expensive and larger. In other words, given the cognitive, physiological, and at biomechanical characteristics of human beings, we may not be able to make vehicles much safer at present velocities are as safe at higher velocities. If this turns out to be true, then we may see only marginal improvements in safety in the future in high income countries. Reductions in mobility levels may turn out to be the only way of reducing morbidity and mortality levels significantly. On the other hand, in low income countries morbidity and mortality rates are likely to keep reducing for some time to come. This is because it will take quite a while for fleets to be replaced with vehicles equipped with the latest safety features. Road improvements will continue for quite some time also. The change will be slow but positive. In absolute numbers the deaths and injuries may increase in low income countries because of higher exposure levels. Vehicle fleets are likely to increase significantly in most low income countries. With small increases in income very large numbers of people will be riding bicycles and motorcycles unless to planned schemes of public transportation, traffic segregation, and traffic calming are put in place. This is not likely to happen in a hurry. With an increase in the use of two-wheelers, absolute numbers of deaths and injuries will also increase.