Citation

Hauer E, Montgomery M. ITE J. 1988; 58(2): 39-43.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1988, Institute of Transportation Engineers)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

An interactive simulation program, the Convincer, written for the IBM-PC and compatibles is described. It simulates the process of selecting sites for treatment, applying to these some remedial work, and estimating its effect on safety. It is the purpose of the authors to show that simple before-and-after comparison may yield incorrect results and an understanding of the circumstances when the danger of bias is acute. It is also intended to convince the user of the merits of the empirical Bayes approach to estimating the safety effects of treatment. It is the purpose of the exercise that the user will develop a realistic assessment of how many accidents are needed to discern a safety effect of some given size. The Convincer has 4 parts: creation, selection for inspection, estimation of treatment of effect, and repetition.