Citation

Kalaga R, Silanda S. Indian Highw. 2002; 30(7): 25-31.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2002, Indian Roads Congress)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The methodology of accident prediction is briefly described. In a study of Durban metropolitan region, accident data on Mangosuthu highway, a single lane two-way road, was analysed using data sample scatter plots. A correlation between total accidents and average daily traffic was observed. A prediction model was based on average daily traffic and lane width. As the correlation between lane width and total number of accidents was low, it was eliminated from further analysis. Predictive equations are presented for total accidents and for rear end accidents. The quadratic model gave better results than linear and exponential models.