Citation

Sherrington C, Lord SR, Close JCT, Barraclough E, Taylor M, O'Rourke S, Kurrle S, Tiedemann A, Cumming RG, Herbert RD. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 2011; 64(7): 779-786.

Affiliation

The George Institute for Global Health, University of Sydney, PO Box M201, Missenden Road, Sydney NSW 2050, Australia; Neuroscience Research Australia, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2011, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.09.015

PMID

21247735

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a falls prediction tool for people being discharged from inpatient aged care rehabilitation. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study. Possible predictors of falls were collected for 442 aged care rehabilitation inpatients at two hospitals. RESULTS: One hundred fifty participants fell in the 3 months after discharge from rehabilitation (34% of 438 with follow-up data). Predictors of falls were male gender (odds ratio [OR] 2.32, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.00-4.03), central nervous system medication prescription (OR 2.04, 95% CI=1.00-3.30), and increased postural sway (OR 1.93, 95% CI=1.00-3.26). This three-variable model was adapted for clinical use by unit weighting (i.e., a score of 1 for each predictor present). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for this tool was 0.69 (95% CI=0.64-0.74, bootstrap-corrected AUC=0.69). There was no evidence of lack of fit between prediction and observation (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.158). CONCLUSION: After external validation, this simple tool could be used to quantify the probability with which an individual will fall in the 3 months after an aged care rehabilitation stay. It may assist in the discharge process by identifying high-risk individuals who may benefit from ongoing assistance or intervention.

Language: en