Citation

de Vogel V, De Ruiter C, van Beek D, Mead G. Law Hum. Behav. 2004; 28(3): 235-251.

Affiliation

Dr. Henri van der Hoeven Kliniek, Utrecht, The Netherlands. vdevogel@hoevenstichting.nl

Copyright

(Copyright © 2004, American Psychological Association)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

15264445

Abstract

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.

Language: en