Citation

Spyratos V, Bourgeron PS, Ghil M. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2007; 104(36): 14272-14276.

Affiliation

Environmental Research and Teaching Institute, Physics Department, and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique and Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace), Ecole Normale Supérieure, F-75231 Paris Cedex 05, France.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2007, National Academy of Sciences)

DOI

10.1073/pnas.0704488104

PMID

17717082

PMCID

PMC1950891

Abstract

This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

Language: en