Citation

Muthers S, Matzarakis A, Koch E. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2010; 7(7): 2965-2977.

Affiliation

Meteorological Institute, University of Freiburg, Werthmannstrasse 10, D-79085 Freiburg, Germany; E-Mail: andreas.matzarakis@meteo.uni-freiburg.de.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2010, MDPI: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute)

DOI

10.3390/ijerph7072965

PMID

20717552

PMCID

PMC2922739

Abstract

The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the human-biometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970-2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011-2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970-2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET >/= 41 degrees C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements.

Language: en