Citation

Bellany I. Def. Peace Econ. 2007; 18(2): 101-112.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2007, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/10242690601143436

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

If international terrorism is on a rising trend, an important source of confirmation or refutation of this is time-series data on terrorist activity. Using chiefly data collected by the RAND/MIPT consortium we show using basic statistical analysis that in the period 1968-2005 the yearly number of all international terrorist incidents shows no trend over time, but fluctuates year on year in a random manner. On the other hand some indicators do show a definite trend over time, principally the steady rise in the number of incidents that are death-dealing in nature. A further conclusion is drawn, showing that the proportion of these incidents leading to deaths above a given level is virtually fixed.