Citation

Pugh PG. Def. Peace Econ. 2004; 15(1): 39-57.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2004, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/1024269042000164487

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

It is intrinsic to the nature of military competition that the unit acquisition costs of defence systems rise generation by generation. Traditional “bottom-up” methods of cost-estimating cannot meet the increasing demands for extensive studies of many options before commencing design and, while “top-down” estimating techniques are an improvement, in particular by reducing the time required for preparing estimates, they also are inadequate to meet current requirements. A new method has been devised, therefore, further developing “top-down” methods using Bayesian techniques to make best use of the available information, whether certain or uncertain, and its accuracy established by example.