Citation

Netherton MD, Stewart MG. Int. J. Impact Eng. 2009; 36(12): 1346-1354.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2009, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ijimpeng.2009.02.009

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

A favoured method of attack to infrastructure is via Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs) detonated within urban environments. The use of terrorist-style explosive blast loads within urban environments typically aims to maximise disruption, damage or destruction to infrastructure, public systems or people. Military planners, on the other hand, try to minimise collateral damage that may occur as a result of ordnance delivered into areas where civilian infrastructure and military targets are in close proximity, which tends to also occur in complex urban environs. Thus, for these and many other scenarios the quantification of infrastructure related safety hazards and damage risks will be of significant interest to decision makers in civil defence, the military and elsewhere. Although the modelling of built infrastructure subject to blast loading has been well developed, considerable uncertainty remains with respect to explosive loading parameters and structural response. This paper focuses on facade glazing - as this poses significant safety hazards when affected by explosive blast loads. A structural reliability analysis is used to calculate probabilities of glazing damage and safety hazards conditional on given threat scenarios. The analysis considers the variability of explosive blast loading; in particular, from variations in explosive weight, explosion effects in terms of pressure, stand-off distance, inherent blast load variability and model error. Uncertainties in structural response (including the variability in glazing stress limits, situational geometry, fragment drag coefficients and modelling error) are then considered in the analysis. This allows the prediction of likelihood and extent of damage and casualties. It was found that damage and safety hazard risks are very sensitive to the accuracy of the blast loading prediction model and the inherent variability of blast loading.