Citation

Hirst WM, Mountain LJ, Maher MJ. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2005; 37(4): 731-741.

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Street, Liverpool L69 3GQ, UK.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2005, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.aap.2005.03.014

PMID

15876417

Abstract

In this paper, models are developed which enable a prediction of how the impact of speed management schemes on accidents varies both with speed changes and with site and scheme characteristics. It was found that, the impact of schemes with vertical deflections is independent of the change in mean speed: an accident reduction of 44% is predicted by the model irrespective of the impact on speed. For cameras and other types of engineering schemes, a simple relationship between the change in mean speed and the consequent change in accidents is available. For the range of mean speeds typically found on 30mph roads, the percentage accident reduction per 1mph speed reduction is around 4% for cameras and 7-8% for schemes with horizontal features. While larger percentage accident reductions are achieved per 1mph speed reduction on lower speed roads, larger speed reductions and larger overall percentage accident reductions are obtained on roads with higher before mean speeds. It is possible to predict both changes in speeds and accidents before treatment using the models derived from this study and these models confirm that schemes with vertical deflections are most effective in reducing both speeds and accidents.