Citation

Liu XY, Liang TG, Guo ZG, Zhang XT. Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao 2008; 19(1): 133-138.

Affiliation

Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystem of Agriculture Ministry, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China. liuxingyuan@lzu.edu.cn

Copyright

(Copyright © 2008, Ying yong sheng tai xue bao bian ji wei yuan hui)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

18419085

Abstract

Based on the analysis of animal husbandry production and of distribution characteristics of snow disaster in northern Xinjiang, and by using RS and GIS techniques and field survey data, 9 early warning factors were selected from the three subsystems of grassland' s disaster-resistant capability, livestock's disaster-bearing capacity, and disaster-causing potential, and the death rate of livestock caused by snow disaster was used as a factor of risk assessment. An index system of snow disaster' s early warning and risk assessment for completely grazing grassland was established, and the early warning model of snow disaster, its distinguishing model, and risk assessment model were built by using multi-hierarchical synthetic and multi-objective linear weight function methods to predict the resistant capability of grassland and livestock against snow disaster, and to assess the potential risk loss from snow disaster in northern Xinjiang. The accuracy of the early warning model and risk assessment model was 85% and 72% , respectively.

Language: zh