TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2019//
TI  - Failure probability analysis of shale gas wellhead devices based on FTA-BN model
JO  - China safety science journal (CSSJ)
A1  - Wang, W.
A1  - Dong, C.
A1  - Liu, L.
A1  - Li, W.
A1  - Mi, H.
A1  - Shen, K.
SP  - 89
EP  - 95
VL  - 29
IS  - 4
N2  - Failure probability analysis model of shale gas wellhead devices, a combination of FTA and BN, was established in order to study the failure. Firstly, a fault tree was developed based on the root cause analysis of wellhead device failure. Secondly, the failure tree was mapped into a BN. Secondly, BN model was modified in terms of polymorphism and uncertainty. Finally, the failure probability of wellhead devices was predicted and the key failure-caused factors were identified by using the two-way reasoning of BN. The results show that the failure probability of wellhead device is 1. 31×10-2and the key factors that lead to the failure are incorrect operation, aging of seal packing and bolt loosening, and the failure probability can be increased by 3×10-3after BN model is modified. © 2019 China Safety Science Journal<p /> <p>Language: zh</p>
LA  - zh
SN  - 1003-3033
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.04.015
ID  - ref1
ER  -