TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2022//
TI  - The emergence of critical incidents in Rugby Union matches using Markov chain analysis
JO  - Science and medicine in football
A1  - Marino, Thomas Kisil
A1  - Ferreira, André Rebêlo
A1  - Morgans, Ryland
A1  - Schildberg, Walter Tenório
A1  - Aoki, Marcelo Saldanha
A1  - Corrêa, Umberto Cesar
A1  - Moreira, Alexandre
SP  - ePub
EP  - ePub
VL  - ePub
IS  - ePub
N2  - During a rugby match, teams are continually trying to cause instabilities (e.g., perturbations) of different magnitudes on each other. Once a perturbation occurs a phase transition emerges. Markov chain analysis has the potential to investigate emerging patterns in rugby union. This study examined the probability of a critical incident (CI; penalties and tries) occurring during Rugby Union matches, and whether differences would exist between winning and losing. The Markov chain analysis was used to identify the probability of a transition from a game state to a further state, due to the analysis of the preceding state. A game phase was defined as a technical and tactical match action which occurred between two consecutive advantage lines. Contingency tables were assembled from 280 phases registered during 11 evaluated matches of Brazilian Rugby Union XV A Series Championship. The results showed that previous technical and tactical actions made from rucks had the highest probability of generating a transition phase leading to a CI. In summary, the results of the present study suggest that the winning teams adopt a more flexible approach to the environmental changes that occur throughout a game and demonstrated more flexibility during transitional state occurrences, with higher variability in technical and tactical actions related to a previous game phase.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 2473-3938
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/24733938.2022.2135758
ID  - ref1
ER  -