TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2022//
TI  - Heat-related mortality in Germany from 1992 to 2021
JO  - Deutsches Ärzteblatt International
A1  - Winklmayr, Claudia
A1  - Muthers, Stefan
A1  - Niemann, Hildegard
A1  - Mücke, Hans-Guido
A1  - Heiden, Mathias An der
SP  - ePub
EP  - ePub
VL  - ePub
IS  - ePub
N2  - BACKGROUND: 2018-2020 were unusually warm years in Germany, and the summer of 2018 was the second warmest summer since record-keeping began in 1881. Higher temperatures regularly lead to increased mortality, particularly among the elderly. <br><br>METHODS: We used weekly data on all-cause mortality and mean temperature from the period 1992-2021 and estimated the number of heat-related deaths in all of Germany, and in the northern, central, and southern regions of Germany, employing a generalized additive model (GAM). To characterize long-term trends, we compared the effect of heat on mortality over the decades. <br><br>RESULTS: Our estimate reveals that the unusually high summer temperatures in Germany between 2018 and 2020 led to a statistically significant number of deaths in all three years. There were approximately 8700 heat-related deaths in 2018, 6900 in 2019, and 3700 in 2020. There was no statistically significant heat-related increase in deaths in 2021. A comparison of the past three decades reveals a slight overall decline in the effect of high temperatures on mortality. <br><br>CONCLUSION: Although evidence suggests that there has been some adaptation to heat over the years, the data from 2018-2020 in particular show that heat events remain a significant threat to human health in Germany.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 1866-0452
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3238/arztebl.m2022.0202
ID  - ref1
ER  -