TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2021//
TI  - ViEWS2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
JO  - Journal of peace research
A1  - Hegre, Håvard
A1  - Bell, Curtis
A1  - Colaresi, Michael
A1  - Croicu, Mihai
A1  - Hoyles, Frederick
A1  - Jansen, Remco
A1  - Leis, Maxine Ria
A1  - Lindqvist-McGowan, Angelica
A1  - Randahl, David
A1  - Rød, Espen Geelmuyden
A1  - Vesco, Paola
SP  - 599
EP  - 611
VL  - 58
IS  - 3
N2  - This article presents an update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System. This update introduces (1) a new infrastructure for training, evaluating, and weighting models that allows us to more optimally combine constituent models into ensembles, and (2) a number of new forecasting models that contribute to improve overall performance, in particular with respect to effectively classifying high- and low-risk cases. Our improved evaluation procedures allow us to develop models that specialize in either the immediate or the more distant future. We also present a formal, 'retrospective' evaluation of how well ViEWS has done since we started publishing our forecasts from July 2018 up to December 2019. Our metrics show that ViEWS is performing well when compared to previous out-of-sample forecasts for the 2015-17 period. Finally, we present our new forecasts for the January 2020-December 2022 period. We continue to predict a near-constant situation of conflict in Nigeria, Somalia, and DRC, but see some signs of decreased risk in Cameroon and Mozambique.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0022-3433
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343320962157
ID  - ref1
ER  -