TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2019//
TI  - Collision prediction in roundabouts: a comparative study of extreme value theory approaches
JO  - Transportmetrica A: transport science
A1  - Orsini, Federico
A1  - Gecchele, Gregorio
A1  - Gastaldi, Massimiliano
A1  - Rossi, Riccardo
SP  - 556
EP  - 572
VL  - 15
IS  - 2
N2  - This work contributes to study the application of extreme value theory (EVT) in road safety analysis, estimating the risk of being involved in an entering-circulating collision in single-lane roundabouts. Detailed trajectory data of the vehicles were derived from a driving simulator experiment, and the time-to-collision (TTC) was used as a surrogate measure of safety. Three EVT approaches were applied, tested and compared: (1) the Generalized Extreme Value distribution used in the block maxima (BM) approach, (2) the Generalized Pareto Distribution used in the peak-over-threshold approach (POT), with negated-TTC (nTTC), and (3) shifted-reciprocal-TTC (srTTC). Case-study results analysis showed that BM and POT with shifted-reciprocal-TTC confidence intervals included the number of observed crashes, while POT with negated-TTC did not include it. According to these findings, both BM and POT-with-shifted-reciprocal-TTC appear promising and deserve further attention in order to develop effective ready-to-practice crash prediction models, useful in intersection design and operational analysis.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 2324-9935
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23249935.2018.1515271
ID  - ref1
ER  -