TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2018//
TI  - Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017: mortality progress and targets
JO  - Archives of disease in childhood
A1  - Viner, Russell M.
A1  - Ward, Joseph L.
A1  - Wolfe, Ingrid
SP  - 474
EP  - 479
VL  - 103
IS  - 5
N2  - BACKGROUND: The Countdown for UK Child Survival tracks recent UK child mortality trends and makes recommendations for improvement. <br><br>METHODS: We used data from the WHO World Mortality Database to calculate mortality from 1970 to 2014 for 0-19 year olds in the UK and a comparable group of wealthy countries (the EU15+). We used Poisson regression models to assess the significance of apparent differences. We extrapolated model coefficients to estimate future disparites between the UK and the EU15+ to 2030. We proposed goals and intermediate indicators to track UK mortality in keeping with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. <br><br>RESULTS: UK infant mortality continues to track in the worst decile of EU15+ mortality with 1-4 year mortality in the worst quartile. Annual reductions in total UK mortality have been significantly lower than the EU15+ since 1990 for infant, postneonatal and 1-4 year mortality. If current trends persist, by 2030 UK infant mortality and 1-4 year mortality could be respectively 180% and 145% of EU15+ median mortality. UK non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality among 1-4 years and 15-19 years persists in the worst quartile. UK injury mortality continues in the best quartile. A framework of goals and indicators for UK child survival and health is presented. <br><br>DISCUSSION: UK mortality among under 10 years of age continues to diverge from the EU15+ median, and UK NCD mortality remains persistently poor. We propose a set of goals to improve UK childhood survival by 2030 and an annual Countdown mechanism to monitor progress towards these targets.<br><br>© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0003-9888
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2017-314184
ID  - ref1
ER  -