TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2014//
TI  - Refugee flows, ethnic power relations, and the spread of conflict
JO  - Security studies
A1  - Krcmaric, Daniel
SP  - 182
EP  - 216
VL  - 23
IS  - 1
N2  - Why do some refugee flows cause conflict in the host state and others do not? Drawing on bargaining models of war, I argue refugees are especially likely to cause conflict when they alter the host state's ethnic balance of power. More specifically, I explain why multiple informational and commitment problems arise when refugee flows produce a rapid shift in relative power between ethnic groups. As an empirical strategy, I examine a unique controlled comparison made possible by the influx of Kosovar refugees into Albania and Macedonia in 1999 that eliminates over a dozen competing explanations for civil conflict. I then use process tracing to demonstrate how a change in relative power between ethnic groups fostered violence in Macedonia, whereas the preservation of the ethnic balance facilitated a peaceful refugee flow into Albania. This evidence, though tentative, indicates that a refugee flow's effect on the host state's ethnic balance of power can help explain whether the state experiences peace or conflict.<p />
LA  - en
SN  - 0963-6412
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2014.874201
ID  - ref1
ER  -