TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2012//
TI  - Fuel age, weather and burn probability in Portugal
JO  - International journal of wildland fire
A1  - Fernandes, Manuel
A1  - Ferreira, Pedro
A1  - Magalhães, Marco
A1  - Loureiro, Carlos
A1  - Fernandes, Paulo M.
SP  - 380
EP  - 384
VL  - 21
IS  - 4
N2  - The relative influence of the factors acting on burn probability, namely fuel and weather, is not well understood, especially in Europe. We use a digital fire atlas (1975-2008) and apply survival analysis to individual fires (1998-2008) to describe how burn probability changes with fuel age in Portugal. The typical fire return interval and median fire-free interval vary regionally from 23 to 52 and 18 to 47 years. Increase of the hazard of burning with time is generally near-linear, denoting moderate fuel-age dependency, as in some other shrub-dominated Mediterranean environments. Analysis of complete fire intervals resulted in shorter fire return interval and higher fuel-age dependency of burn probability than findings that included censored observations. Increasingly severe weather conditions either expressed through fire size or by extreme fire danger concurrently decreased fuel-age dependency and selected older fuels. The results are discussed from the viewpoints of fire suppression and fuel treatments.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 1049-8001
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF10063
ID  - ref1
ER  -