TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2004//
TI  - The importance of type II error and falsifiability
JO  - International journal of occupational medicine and environmental health
A1  - Matsuda, Hiroyuki
SP  - 137
EP  - 145
VL  - 17
IS  - 1
N2  - Before intergovernmental consensus under the Rio Declaration in 1992, ignorance of type I errors had been disfavored in science. However, the Precautionary Principle (PP) counsels the avoidance of type II errors, rather than of type I errors. We need a new academic code for the PP. The risk of extinction has usually been evaluated based on conservative estimates of the present population size. I define the weight of evidence as the extinction risk of Japanese vascular plants based on unbiased estimates. Catch quotas in the fisheries are usually decided by precautionary approach. I calculate the long-term yield and risk of stock collapse under a simple stock dynamics model. The weight of evidence depends on the frequency of grids with size unknown. In a few plant species, rankings based on conservative estimates have differed from rankings based on unbiased estimates. In fishery management, a catch quota based on a precautionary approach proved neither sufficient nor necessary to avoid stock collapse. The precautionary approach is one of the reasons that prevent us from maximizing a sustainable yield. We need to clarify the end-point of risks, and check whether it is necessary to adopt a PP. We can obtain the weight of evidence that is measured under unbiased estimates, while the risk based on a PP is measured under conservative estimates.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 1232-1087
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/
ID  - ref1
ER  -