TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2012//
TI  - Point process modelling of the Afghan War Diary
JO  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
A1  - Zammit-Mangion, Andrew
A1  - Dewar, Michael
A1  - Kadirkamanathan, Visakan
A1  - Sanguinetti, Guido
SP  - 12414
EP  - 12419
VL  - 109
IS  - 31
N2  - Modern conflicts are characterized by an ever increasing use of information and sensing technology, resulting in vast amounts of high resolution data. Modelling and prediction of conflict, however, remain challenging tasks due to the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of the data typically available. Here we propose the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modelling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. Using ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, we provide a predictive framework able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. We demonstrate our methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary. Our results show that the approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from previous years.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0027-8424
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1203177109
ID  - ref1
ER  -