TY  - JOUR
PY  - 1989//
TI  - Errors in the quantification of uncertainty: A product of heuristics or minimal probability knowledge base?
JO  - Applied cognitive psychology
A1  - Gebotys, R. J.
A1  - Claxton-Oldfield, S. P.
SP  - 237
EP  - 250
VL  - 3
IS  - 3
N2  - The use of intuitive heuristics (e. g. representativeness and availability) has been put forward as an explanation for people's assignment of probabilities (Tversky and Kahneman, 1971). This phenomenon is seen as robust since experts as defined by education (professional psychologists), despite advanced training in statistics and methodology, rely on the same heuristics as novices (lay people). Both experts and novices as defined by education were studied in a series of experiments and further classified as experts and novices according to their probability knowledge base, prior to receiving (or not) a brief (15-minute) training session. Immediately following training, subjects completed a probability test which consisted of ten Tversky and Kahneman (e. g. 1974) problems. The training significantly increased the number of problems correctly solved on the probability test and eliminated the expert/novice education classification. The results of a follow-up test 5 weeks after the experiment indicated that the training group maintained its superior performance. It is proposed that failure to use proper methods of probability assignment may not be due to intrinsic human inference biases or heuristics, but is a result of a minimal probability knowledge base.<p /> <p>Language: en</p> 
LA  - en
SN  - 0888-4080
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/acp.2350030304
ID  - ref1
ER  -