TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2011//
TI  - Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment
JO  - American economic journal: applied economics
A1  - Ciccone, Antonio
SP  - 215
EP  - 227
VL  - 3
IS  - 4
N2  - Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t -- 1 and t -- 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t -- 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t -- 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)<p />
LA  - 
SN  - 1945-7782
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/app.3.4.215
ID  - ref1
ER  -