TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2011//
TI  - Effect of Previous-Winter Mortality on the Association between Summer Temperature and Mortality in South Korea
JO  - Environmental health perspectives
A1  - Ha, Jongsik
A1  - Kim, Ho
A1  - Hajat, Shakoor
SP  - 542
EP  - 546
VL  - 119
IS  - 4
N2  - BACKGROUND: It has recently been postulated that low-mortality levels in the previous winter may increase the proportion of vulnerable individuals in the pool of people at risk of heat-related death during the summer months. OBJECTIVES: We explored the sensitivity of heat-related mortality in summer (June-August) to mortality in the previous winter (December-February) in Seoul, Daegu, and Incheon in South Korea, from 1992-2007, excluding 1994. METHODS: Poisson regression models adapted for time-series data were used to estimate associations between a 1°C increase in average summer temperature (on the same day and the previous day) above city-, age-, and cause of death-specific thresholds and daily mortality counts. Effects were estimated separately for summers preceded by winters of low- and high-mortality, with adjustment for secular trends. RESULTS: Temperatures above city-specific thresholds were associated with increased mortality in all 3 cities. Associations were stronger in summers preceded by winters with low versus high mortality levels for all non-accidental deaths and, to a lesser extent, among those aged 65 years or older. Effect modification by previous winter mortality was not evident when deaths were restricted to cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes in Seoul. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that low winter all-cause mortality leads to higher mortality in the following summer. Evidence of a relation between increased summer heat-related mortality and previous wintertime deaths has the potential to inform public health efforts to mitigate effects of hot weather.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0091-6765
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1002080
ID  - ref1
ER  -