TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2005//
TI  - A multivariate regression model predicted falls in residents living in intermediate hostel care
JO  - Journal of clinical epidemiology
A1  - Chen, Jian Sheng
A1  - March, Lyn M.
A1  - Schwarz, Jennifer
A1  - Zochling, J.
A1  - Makaroff, J.
A1  - Sitoh, Y. Y.
A1  - Lau, Tse Chiang
A1  - Lord, Stephen R.
A1  - Cameron, Ian D.
A1  - Cumming, Robert G.
A1  - Sambrook, Philip N.
SP  - 503
EP  - 508
VL  - 58
IS  - 5
N2  - BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score > or =7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (> or =7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months. CONCLUSION: The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.
LA  - 
SN  - 0895-4356
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.08.018
ID  - ref1
ER  -