TY  - JOUR
PY  - 1989//
TI  - The Probability of Nuclear War
JO  - Journal of peace research
A1  - Avenhaus, R.
A1  - Fichtner, J.
A1  - Brams, S. J.
A1  - Kilgour, D. M.
SP  - 91
EP  - 99
VL  - 26
IS  - 1
N2  - A theoretical analysis of the probability of nuclear war is developed that assumes a starting probability and an annual reduction factor. Whatever the starting probability is, a constant reduction factor leads to an eventual probability that is less than 1, whereas the eventual probability goes to 1 if there is no reduction or if the reduction proportion decreases at a constant rate. Numerical calculations and graphical results illustrate trade-offs between the starting probabilities and the reduction factors, demonstrating especially the significance of the latter. In addition, upper and lower limits for, and approximations of, the eventual probabilities - along with measures of the rate of convergence - are derived. The applicability of the analysis to lowering the probability of nuclear war is discussed, with particular attention paid to real-life factors that seem to affect this probability.<p /> 
LA  - 
SN  - 0022-3433
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343389026001009
ID  - ref1
ER  -