TY - JOUR PY - 2005// TI - War and Economic Performance JO - Journal of peace research A1 - Koubi, Vally SP - 67 EP - 82 VL - 42 IS - 1 N2 - This article studies the consequences of inter-and intrastate wars for economic growth in a large cross-section of countries during the period 1960-89. It establishes that cross-country differences in economic growth are systematically related to the severity and duration of war. The combined prewar, contemporaneous, and postwar association between growth and war is negative; that is, economic performance has been lower in countries that fought a severe and/or prolonged war. However, the causal effect of war on postwar economic performance is positive. In particular, the longer or more severe the war, the higher the subsequent long-term rate of economic growth. A possible interpretation of these findings is that war is more likely to occur in poorly performing countries and/or to have a negative direct - contemporaneous - effect on growth. But in the longer term, war creates growth-enhancing possibilities. Interestingly, these effects arise mostly from civil wars and are quantitatively quite substantial. For instance, an increase in war duration by 10% leads to an increase of 2.1% in the average growth rate. The findings of this article are thus consistent with the predictions of the theories of both Organski & Kugler and Olson.

LA - SN - 0022-3433 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343305049667 ID - ref1 ER -