%0 Journal Article
%T The way of the gun: estimating firearms trafficking across the US-Mexico border
%J Journal of economic geography
%D 2015
%A McDougal, Topher L.
%A Shirk, David A.
%A Muggah, Robert
%A Patterson, John H.
%V 15
%N 2
%P 297-327
%X The volume of firearms sold in USA and trafficked across the US-Mexico border is notoriously difficult to estimate. We consider a unique approach using GIS-generated county-level panel data (1993-1999 and 2010-2012) of Federal Firearms Licenses to sell small arms (FFLs) to estimate the realized demand for firearms based on the distance by road from the nearest point on the US-Mexico border. We use a time-series negative binomial model paired with a post-estimation population attributable fraction (PAF) estimator. We do so to control determinants of domestic demand. We are able to estimate a total demand for trafficking, both in terms of firearms and dollar sales for the firearms industry. We find that nearly 2.2% (between 0.9% and 3.7%) of US domestic arms sales are attributable to the US-Mexico traffic in the period 2010-2012, representing 212,887 firearms (between 89,816 and 359,205) purchased annually to be trafficked.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>
%G en
%I Oxford University Press
%@ 1468-2702
%U http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu021