@article{ref1,
title="Modelling the longer-term health and health inequality impacts of changes in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in England",
journal="Journal of public health (Oxford)",
year="2024",
author="Angus, Colin and Henney, Madeleine and Pryce, Robert",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption changed substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic for many people. This study quantified how these changes in drinking varied across the population and their potential longer-term impact on health and health inequalities. <br><br>METHODS: We analyzed data from the Alcohol Toolkit Study to estimate how alcohol consumption changed during the pandemic (April 2020-November 2021) and how these changes varied with age, sex, drinking level and socioeconomic position. We combined these estimates with a range of alternative scenarios of future alcohol consumption and used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to assess the long-term health and health inequality impacts of these changes. <br><br>RESULTS: Alcohol consumption in 2020-21 increased in heavier drinkers but fell in moderate drinkers. If alcohol consumption returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, we estimate a total of 42 677 additional hospital admissions and 1830 deaths over 20 years because of these changes. If consumption remains at 2021 levels in the long-term these figures rise to 355 832 and 12 849, respectively. In all scenarios, the biggest increase in harm occurs in the most deprived 20% of the population. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic-era changes in alcohol consumption are likely to have a significant negative impact on public health and health inequalities, even under optimistic assumptions about future drinking.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1741-3842",
doi="10.1093/pubmed/fdae010",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdae010"
}