@article{ref1,
title="Short-time prediction of flight operation risk based on time series models",
journal="China safety science journal (CSSJ)",
year="2020",
author="Wang, Y. and Chen, G.",
volume="30",
number="5",
pages="33-38",
abstract="In order to address the lack of flight operation risk prediction technology in China, ARMA method was used to build a univariate prediction model of flights' daily operation risk. Then, a multivariate prediction model was constructed by using VAR method. Finally, short-term prediction efficiency of two models was compared through stability test. The results show that the 3rdday prediction accuracy of ARMA-based single variable prediction model can be 80.76%, and its available forecast period is 1-3 days while that of VAR-based model can be as high as 92% for the 1st day and still keep at 80.64% for 7thday with an applicable prediction period of 1-7 days. It is proved that ARMA and VAR-based time series models can predict flight operation risk in a short term, but the VAR-based multivariate prediction model has higher accuracy, which meets airlines' actual needs better. © 2020 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.<p /><p>Language: zh</p>",
language="zh",
issn="1003-3033",
doi="10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.05.006",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.05.006"
}