@article{ref1,
title="Failure probability analysis of shale gas wellhead devices based on FTA-BN model",
journal="China safety science journal (CSSJ)",
year="2019",
author="Wang, W. and Dong, C. and Liu, L. and Li, W. and Mi, H. and Shen, K.",
volume="29",
number="4",
pages="89-95",
abstract="Failure probability analysis model of shale gas wellhead devices, a combination of FTA and BN, was established in order to study the failure. Firstly, a fault tree was developed based on the root cause analysis of wellhead device failure. Secondly, the failure tree was mapped into a BN. Secondly, BN model was modified in terms of polymorphism and uncertainty. Finally, the failure probability of wellhead devices was predicted and the key failure-caused factors were identified by using the two-way reasoning of BN. The results show that the failure probability of wellhead device is 1. 31×10-2and the key factors that lead to the failure are incorrect operation, aging of seal packing and bolt loosening, and the failure probability can be increased by 3×10-3after BN model is modified. © 2019 China Safety Science Journal<p /><p>Language: zh</p>",
language="zh",
issn="1003-3033",
doi="10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.04.015",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.04.015"
}