@article{ref1,
title="The emergence of critical incidents in Rugby Union matches using Markov chain analysis",
journal="Science and medicine in football",
year="2022",
author="Marino, Thomas Kisil and Ferreira, André Rebêlo and Morgans, Ryland and Schildberg, Walter Tenório and Aoki, Marcelo Saldanha and Corrêa, Umberto Cesar and Moreira, Alexandre",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="During a rugby match, teams are continually trying to cause instabilities (e.g., perturbations) of different magnitudes on each other. Once a perturbation occurs a phase transition emerges. Markov chain analysis has the potential to investigate emerging patterns in rugby union. This study examined the probability of a critical incident (CI; penalties and tries) occurring during Rugby Union matches, and whether differences would exist between winning and losing. The Markov chain analysis was used to identify the probability of a transition from a game state to a further state, due to the analysis of the preceding state. A game phase was defined as a technical and tactical match action which occurred between two consecutive advantage lines. Contingency tables were assembled from 280 phases registered during 11 evaluated matches of Brazilian Rugby Union XV A Series Championship. The results showed that previous technical and tactical actions made from rucks had the highest probability of generating a transition phase leading to a CI. In summary, the results of the present study suggest that the winning teams adopt a more flexible approach to the environmental changes that occur throughout a game and demonstrated more flexibility during transitional state occurrences, with higher variability in technical and tactical actions related to a previous game phase.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="2473-3938",
doi="10.1080/24733938.2022.2135758",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/24733938.2022.2135758"
}